Friday, August 7, 2009

If Goldman says "higher" than higher it must be... not.

There are fears of a big down number in Friday's labor report, but that won’t tell us anything about the 2010 economy, which the current rally is trying to discount. Our PCRATIO has just about turned bearish http://cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx, though this can change quickly one way or the other.

Jobs means income and spending money. We're still losing jobs. However, if you wish to ignore that fact just keep watching television and know that everything is okay. Jobs are a good thing even though the government now wants to take care of us ... see jobs: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

A 5% pullback on the SPX would bring us to 954, a very easy number to get to in a matter of days. The pullback number I'm interested in is 928 and 878. The 928 number is the right "shoulder" top of the failed head and shoulders of May. The 878 number is the neckline of the same H&S which would be about a 12.5% correction, also doable with a week or so. In order to avoid the typical October crash, it seems to me it's important that we pullback or correct well before tax loss selling kicks in, which usually starts in October. A typical postrecession rally historically has given us a 46% advance AFTER the recession. We've had a near 52% advance since March 9th. Furthermore, Goldman is suggesting another 10%advance from here by the end of the year. Notice GS didn't say in a straight line up from here.

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